The Morning Drive

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Monday, October 26, 2026 · 4-minute read

Good morning. We’re starting the week with the franchise question behind Scout’s retail plans, then turning to Audi’s manufacturing plans and a closer look at the debt arriving with customers’ trade-ins. Our weekend recap brings two Friday developments forward with their dates intact. Let’s get into it.

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AT THE DESK

Scout’s direct-sales fight survives another court test

A fresh ruling keeps a consequential franchise fight moving: on October 22, Chief Judge Cynthia Bashant denied Volkswagen Group of America’s and Scout’s motions for judgment on the pleadings in the California New Car Dealers Association’s lawsuit. (Court order, page 1) The decision leaves the association’s remaining unfair-competition claims alive in the Southern District of California. (Court order, page 2)

The underlying dispute concerns Scout’s plan to sell directly to California consumers and the reach of that state’s prohibition on manufacturers competing with their franchised dealers, including conduct “indirectly through an affiliate.” (CNCDA’s October 23 account) That makes the case worth following well beyond the Volkswagen showroom: how a new brand fits within an established manufacturer’s corporate family can matter to the retail channel.

This round turned on the law-of-the-case doctrine. The judge found the companies were trying to relitigate issues already decided in March, without grounds to reopen them; both motions were denied without prejudice. (Court order, pages 4–8)

For Florida dealers, this is a case to watch, not a Florida compliance instruction. The court was deciding whether the pleaded claims could proceed, not issuing a final finding that the defendants had violated the law. (Court order, pages 2–3) Keep an eye on the eventual merits decisions and any remedy, rather than treating this procedural win as the finished answer to direct sales.

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THE BIG PICTURE

Audi puts its U.S. factory plans in Georgia

Georgia announced on October 24 that Audi selected the Middle Georgia Megasite in Peach County for its first U.S. production site, an approximately $4 billion investment with about 4,500 jobs planned. (Georgia governor’s office)

In its October 25 release, Audi describes premium SUVs tailored to North American customers, capacity of up to 200,000 vehicles annually and production expected in the early 2030s. (Audi) That makes the announcement a long-range product-and-supply story for Southeast luxury retailers.

For stores, the useful next detail is the model allocation: which vehicles will come from Georgia, in what sequence, and with what implications for the U.S. lineup? Those specifics will matter more to inventory planning than the groundbreaking headline. Keep the manufacturing timetable separate from promises about customer pricing or availability.

BUSINESS OFFICE

The trade-in comes with a bigger balance

Edmunds’ October 21 report found that 29.1% of trade-ins with outstanding loans toward new-vehicle purchases had negative equity in the third quarter, up from 28.1% a year earlier. (Edmunds) Among those underwater trade-ins, the average amount owed beyond the vehicle’s value reached $7,107. (Edmunds)

These are national transaction figures, not the share of all drivers who are underwater. The new loans taken by buyers rolling negative equity averaged $57,235, compared with $39,732 in the third quarter of 2019. (Edmunds)

For your store, consider making the trade payoff, vehicle value and carried balance explicit before the conversation narrows to a monthly payment. That gives the salesperson, desk and F&I office a common starting point for explaining the proposed transaction and its trade-offs. A longer term deserves a clear explanation, not just a more comfortable payment.

The next loan is bigger

Average new loan · U.S. buyers rolling negative equity

Q3 2019: $39,732

  

Q3 2026: $57,235

  

Both bars start at zero on the same $60,000 scale.

Original graphic. U.S. new loans for buyers rolling negative equity, Q3 2019 and Q3 2026. Edmunds.

WEEKEND RECAP

Two Friday developments worth carrying into Monday

  • Volvo’s U.S. reset, October 23: Volvo says it has divided the U.S. market into four regions to speed decisions and improve sales, while fast-tracking long-range plug-in hybrid versions of the XC90 and XC60. (Volvo Cars) Its planned start of XC60 production in Charleston remains the first quarter of 2027. (Volvo Cars) For retailers, watch the regional plan and ordering guidance rather than infer a store-level allocation change from the corporate announcement.
  • Volkswagen labor talks, October 23: IG Metall threatened industrial action from January unless Volkswagen reverses its termination of wage agreements; a current truce rules out strikes before January 1. (Reuters) Formal talks are scheduled for November 24 and December 15 in Germany. (Reuters) This is a labor-risk watch, not a confirmed production interruption. Keep any customer delivery changes tied to actual order updates.