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Thursday, October 15, 2026 · 4-minute read
Good morning. Today, we’re looking at where trucks are piling up, what the latest price report means at the desk, and how Carvana is raising the delivery stakes in Jacksonville. We also have a Volvo timing check and recovery help for Panhandle teams. Let’s get into it.
THE BIG PICTURE
The inventory is moving. Just not evenly.
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Where new-vehicle supply built up Q3 versus Q2 2026 · National net inventory changes, in vehicles Full-size trucks: +29,027 Heavy-duty trucks: +12,288 XL SUVs: +9,837
Shared zero-to-30,000-vehicle scale. Not Florida-specific or retail-sales totals. |
Original Morning Drive graphic. National new-vehicle inventory, Q3 versus Q2 2026. Catalyst IQ, page 9.
Before adding another truck to the order, look past the industry total. Catalyst IQ’s October 12 report shows new full-size truck inventory increased by 29,027 vehicles from Q2 to Q3, while heavy-duty trucks added 12,288 and XL SUVs added 9,837 in its national dataset. (Original report, page 9) This is an overlooked quarterly finding, not an overnight inventory surge.
Meanwhile, small and midsize sedans, wagons and hatchbacks saw inventory decline as vehicles moved out faster than they arrived. (October 12 release) The useful distinction is not “trucks bad, cars good.” It is whether your incoming mix matches the price points and configurations customers are actually choosing.
The report’s inventory-efficiency measure puts small sedans at 139 and full-size trucks at 85; 100 represents demand balanced with relative supply, not days’ supply or a percentage sold. (Methodology and segment comparison, page 8) These national aggregates do not establish demand for a specific Florida rooftop.
For your store, put the incoming allocation beside aged inventory and recent lost deals. A premium-heavy order deserves another look if customers keep leaving over budget. Conversely, do not discount a fast-moving configuration simply because its broader segment is carrying excess supply.
The next inventory meeting should separate the vehicles needing a sharper offer from those needing a different buyer. One blanket discount can miss both.
AT THE DESK
A near-record average is not your customer's budget
Kelley Blue Book’s October 13 release puts September’s average new-vehicle transaction price at $50,562, just $52 below its December 2025 record. (KBB report) That is a transaction-price estimate, not the marketed-inventory price in the separate Catalyst report.
The average rose only 0.7% year over year, partly because buyers chose more affordable segments; compact-car transaction prices nevertheless increased 3.2%. (KBB segment findings) A modest industry increase can conceal a tougher conversation on the vehicle a customer wants.
Keep an attainable alternative in that conversation: a different trim, body style or available model year, with the actual equipment and price differences laid out. The average is useful for understanding the market. It cannot close the gap in an individual deal.
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FLORIDA COMPETITION
Carvana makes Jacksonville push
Carvana announced October 14 that select greater-Jacksonville customers can receive a vehicle as soon as the day they order; local sellers can also schedule pickup or drop-off as soon as the day they complete its online appraisal. (Company announcement) This is a delivery expansion, distinct from last week’s Sanford reconditioning plan.
The qualification matters: select customers, not every vehicle or address, and an announced capability rather than independently measured performance. (Service scope) The competitive question for nearby stores is how much time separates “yes” from a genuinely ready vehicle.
OEM WATCH
Volvo's EX60 needs a careful delivery conversation
An October 14 Electrek report quotes Volvo spokesperson Jacquelyn Johnson saying EX60 availability will remain limited in the short term, while the company expects a significant number to reach dealers in early 2027. (Electrek reporting) That expectation is not a confirmed arrival date for an individual order.
For Volvo stores, separate a customer’s preferred timing from the latest verified allocation information. Give waiting buyers a clear next update rather than letting an estimated launch window become a delivery promise.
For competing luxury stores, treat this as a reason to explain what is available now, not to repeat unverified claims about a rival’s safety or quality. Production delays alone do not establish either.
THE USED LOT
Cheaper at auction does not mean cheap to retail
Black Book’s October 13 report says wholesale values fell 0.70% in the week ending October 10, with auction conversion steady at 56%; clean, retail-ready units drew the strongest demand. (Weekly report) Those are national wholesale observations, not a recommended markdown on your retail inventory.
Bring the recon estimate into the buying decision early. A lower acquisition price is less useful if the vehicle consumes additional shop time before it is ready for a customer.
FLORIDA FIRST
Recovery help opens today in Pensacola
Florida’s disaster page lists two resource centers opening October 15, 1–7 p.m. Central: Bayview Senior Citizens Center, 2000 East Lloyd Street, and Salvation Army Community Center, 1501 North Q Street. (State recovery directory) Individuals and businesses can seek recovery assistance; bring identification, insurance information and loss documentation, and check the directory before traveling. (What to bring)